Saturday's Clasico showdown might end up being a measuring stick of just how far Carlo Ancelotti's side have fallen
This wasn't supposed to happen. Things aren't really going to plan for Real Madrid. Los Blancos, who were tipped to win the lot this season, have been miles off it. In fact, this, right now, is a football team on a steep decline. Madrid are out of the Champions League, slipping up in La Liga, and scraping narrow wins on moments of brilliance – as well as the odd slice of luck.
It is a fine thing, then, that Los Blancos are facing Barcelona this weekend. Clasicos are always tense occasions, and even the ones that don't mean as much always feel big – by virtue of rivalry alone. This one, though, holds a certain gravitas. There is not only a trophy on the line but also the sense of two teams at different junctures. Madrid are on the way down, broken when they were supposed to be chugging through the season. Barcelona, meanwhile, are on the ascent – and only likely to get better.
And after all of the pre-season talk about how Madrid were the ones to watch, and Barca were set up to fail, Saturday's final might well end up showing just how far Carlo Ancelotti and his troops have gone backwards.
Getty Images SportIt wouldn't be the first time
This is not the way that these fixtures used to look. El Clasico is the game that everyone used to watch – regardless of your allegiance. Here was Cristiano Ronaldo versus Lionel Messi, Mourinho versus Guardiola: the two best teams in Europe going at it. To be clear, there were beatdowns – a Barca battering of Madrid at the Bernabeu will go down in history. But mostly there was jeopardy. You really didn't know who was going to win. Margins were razor thin. It came down to tactics, mentality and showing up on the day.
But this year, that really hasn't been the case. Barcelona haven't just beaten Madrid, they have thrashed them – twice. The first beatdown came in La Liga, the Blaugrana cutting through Madrid to the tune of a 4-0 win in Mbappe's first Clasico. The second was even more damning – 5-2 in the Supercopa de Espana final. Ancelotti lamented the result, and lambasted his team for "not playing soccer" after the final whistle. He said, too, that he was "sad and disappointed." By the end of it all, Don Carlo was forced to apologise to the fans.
"We are very sad and disappointed. But that's football, and we leave with that sadness. Our sadness is the same as the fans. We are truly sorry," he said in a post-match interview.
AdvertisementGetty ImagesPaper thin defence
It doesn't take a genius to look at the scoreline and tag this all down to defensive issues. Conceding nine goals across two games isn't a great look. Doing so against your bitter rivals is embarrassing. And Madrid have been easily cut apart by the Blaugrana, twice. There's a simple formula to all this. The Madrid midfield collapses, Pedri – or another diminutive Barca central operator – dances through. The ball is then shifted to either Lamine Yamal or Raphinha – who, in turn, sets up a central striker. Madrid, in effect, have conceded some version of the same goal every time.
Ancelotti has admitted that his midfield isn't good enough in recent weeks. After tinkering with a 4-3-3 – one that was torn apart in last autumn's Clasico – he has reverted to a more orthodox 4-4-2. That formation – one that requires omitting Rodrygo and diminishing Jude Bellingham's attacking role – is the only one that works.
"My preferred system is 4-4-2 because I think we defend better, I have a lot of affection for it because defensively it's the best system," he said after the weekend's narrow win over Athletic Club – a game Los Blancos were fortunate not to lose.
There are further issues, of course. Defending requires smart systems, the right configuration of players fine balanced to ensure a compact and stout unit. Take the star individuals away, and that balance is altered. Injuries, then, to Dani Carvajal, Eder Militao and, now, David Alaba have not helped. Lucas Vazquez has been an agreeable backup at right-back, but he is a converted winger. Raul Asencio has slotted in well, but has still made mistakes. Madrid are vulnerable.
GettyThe Mbappe problem
And then, of course, there is the issue with the man playing up front. Mbappe's stats make for pretty good reading. A few strong performances and he will hit 40 goals in his first season in Madrid. There is no way to spin that as a bad thing. But there is a prevailing sense that it could be better. It's simple: Kylian Mbappe is not a No.9. He can occupy central areas when needed, but it's a begrudging shift to the middle, rather than a wholesale change of style. Mbappe insisted otherwise in January, claiming that his adjustment period at Madrid was over.
"I'm really happy. I've adapted to the team now and I can play as I want, with my team-mates, with personality. We're all enjoying it," he claimed, with no shortage of self-righteousness, in January.
And that may be true. He might have learned to shift from his best spot to one he prefers less. But he still doesn't act like a striker. Mbappe doesn't make the instinctive runs like a No.9. When Vinicius darts to the byline and looks for a cutback to the near post, Mbappe is usually hanging out – far away from goal.
He isn't really a target man, either – something Madrid learned very well when they attempted more than 30 crosses against Arsenal, none of which yielded any real chances.
Whether, outwardly, he, makes Madrid worse is up for debate. But he certainly hasn't made them markedly better.
Getty Images SportBallon d'Or contenders – but not in Madrid white
Ironically, before the start of the season, Madrid looked like they would be the side fielding multiple Ballon d'Or contenders. Vinicius, Mbappe and Bellingham all vying for the same honour, and all having a decent claim to it. None of the three are in with a realistic shot now, though. Maybe a double trophy win, with a miraculous end to the season, followed by a Club World Cup triumph, could augment Mbappe's chances. Bellingham could also – at a push – sneak in.
But the real contenders play for the other side. And they're both incredibly dangerous. Lamine Yamal might not be the next Lionel Messi, but he is arguably the best player in world football right now. His 16 goals and 21 assists in all competitions make for fine reading. Still, it's the extra stuff that stands out. Yamal plays with a maturity beyond his years. He terrifies defenders with his jinks and tricks. He understands angles and passing lanes that players far older and more experienced cannot. It would be a fine thing for him to win a Ballon d'Or – and there might be more in the future.
Unfortunately for Madrid – and perhaps even Yamal – there is another guy on the opposite wing who has a decent shout, too. Raphinha has reinvented himself under Hansi Flick. he has become more direct and deadly. He does more while touching the ball less. If Yamal is the dribbler and Lewandowski is the finisher, then Raphinha is the extra incisive edge. He takes a very good Barcelona team and makes it great. And he will be an absolute nightmare for Vazquez.
Yamal has insisted the Ballon d'Or doesn't concern him. That may well be the case – but the point is, one of them will likely claim it.
"We haven’t talked about that. If we win the titles they have ahead of us, one of us will win it, whoever it is. I’m very happy for Raphinha, I always tell him his change has been incredible and he’s having a great time. The Ballon d’Or does not worry me," he said.